Epidemic size, trend and spatiotemporal mapping of SARS-CoV-2 using geographical information system in Alborz Province, Iran.

BACKGROUND: The first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran were reported in Qom city. Subsequently, the neighboring provinces and gradually all 31 provinces of Iran were involved. This study aimed to investigate the case fatility rate, basic reproductive number in different period of epidemic, projection of daily and cumulative incidence cases and also spatiotemporal mapping of SARS-CoV-2 in Alborz province, Iran. METHODS: A confirmed case of COVID-19 infection was defined as a case with a positive result of viral nucleic acid testing in respiratory specimens. Serial interval (SI) was fitted by gamma distribution and considered the likelihood-based R0 using a branching process with Poisson likelihood. Seven days average of cases, deaths, doubling times and CFRs used to draw smooth charts. kernel density tool in Arc GIS (Esri) software has been employed to compute hot spot area of the study site. RESULTS: The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.88 (95%, CI: 2.57-3.23) in the early 14 days of epidemic. The case fatility rate for Alborz province (Iran) on March 10, was 8.33% (95%, CI:6.3-11), and by April 20, it had an increasing trend and reached 12.9% (95%,CI:11.5-14.4). The doubling time has been increasing from about two days and then reached about 97 days on April 20, 2020, which shows the slowdown in the spread rate of the disease. Also, from March 26 to April 2, 2020 the whole Geographical area of Karj city was almost affected by SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSIONS: The R0 of COVID-19 in Alborz province was substantially high at the beginning of the epidemic, but with preventive measures and public education and GIS based monitoring of the cases,it has been reduced to 1.19 within two months. This reduction highpoints the attainment of preventive measures in place, however we must be ready for any second epidemic waves during the next months.

Exposure to sulfur mustard increases the risk for mortality in patients with COVID-19 infection: A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the prognosis of inpatients with COVID-19 infection who have a history of sulfur mustard exposure. METHODS: We started a cohort study in October 2020 and ended in May 2021 on inpatients with COVID-19 infection who had been admitted to university healthcare centers. The analytic sample included 960 inpatients having COVID-19 infection (192 with; and 768 without sulfur mustard exposure). The exposed patients were male war veterans, and the unexposed patients were male individually age-matched people. All patients had a positive RT-PCR test and a positive chest CT for COVID-19. The outcome was death within 28 days of admission, and the predictors were clinical features recorded at patients' bedsides. RESULTS: There was a significantly higher prevalence for asthma (p = 0.026) and pulmonary disease other than asthma (p < 0.001) in patients with the exposure. Sulfur mustard exposure was associated with increased risk for mortality of COVID-19 [hazard ratio (95% CI) = 1.92 (1.14,3.24), p = 0.013]. Early intubation signified a poor prognosis [hazard = 7.34 (4.65,11.58), p < 0.001]. However, individuals with higher PaO2 [hazard = 0.97 (0.95,0.98), p < 0.001], or people undergoing O2 therapy early upon admission [hazard = 0.58 (0.38,0.89), p = 0.011] showed lower risks for mortality. Individuals with asthma were at higher risk for mortality [hazard = 3.76 (1.69,8.36), p = 0.001]. CONCLUSION: Individuals with COVID-19 infection and sulfur mustard exposure should be considered high-risk patients and that, healthcare settings should be ready to provide critical care for them, including O2 therapy. They are more likely to have asthma or other pulmonary diseases.